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03-20-2013, 03:04 PM
  #57
Hanji
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Wisconsin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Kanadensisk View Post
The study I did a few years ago looked at the relative placing of teams in the World Championships in the years before and after they host the tournament and it showed that teams on average finished slightly better when not hosting. I chose this method since obviously the strength of teams / nations varies over time and the winning percentage of a team in 2010 probably has little to do with their performance in 1985. However one thing I will admit is there is relatively very little modern data to work with when it comes to international hockey, especially compared to league stats.

There have been a number of home ice advantage threads through the years but they almost exclusively focus on the home ice advantage in league play. Even in league play the home ice advantage statistically is very small but also many of the reasons for the advantage don't apply in international hockey. For example the rules advantage, last line change, etc., don't apply, the home team being more familiar with any quirky things about the rink usually don't apply, the travel advantage doesn't apply, etc, etc, etc.

My guess is that the pressure of playing at home helps some and hurts some but saying that the host team has some sort of big advantage just isn't true.

How many world championships did you analyze? I analyzed the last 30 using your criteria. A large and trustworthy sample size is always beneficial. Results show an advantage for the host country. 58% of the time the host country will achieve a higher placement than the average of the preceding and following year. May we also consider only 1 N. American WC was played. Its conceivable that an even distribution of N. American and European hosted events would tilt the advantage to the host country even more.
PM me if you'd like to view my findings.


Last edited by Hanji: 03-21-2013 at 12:42 PM.
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