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03-22-2013, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Sure, if top faceoff guys happened to be on the lines that get matched up against DD for those faceoffs. Which I'm going to assume doesn't happen that often in the overall grand scheme of things. Certainly a coach with last change wouldn't sub in a better faceoff guy in the defensive zone because he sees DD out there, for example, and looking at the guys among the faceoff leaders, how many of them end up squaring off with DD instead of Pleks?

And what you're saying is... even watching them both take draws game after game, year after year, your conclusion from observation is that the small amount of "statistical noise" is representative of their respective talents/abilities in the faceoff circle?

Based on having watched DD and Pleks take faceoffs for a long time now, I'd expect DD to have closer to 45% in Plek's shoes, and Pleks to have closer to 55% in DD's shoes. I see much more than the 1.9% to which the spreadsheet fan is limited.
There's no strong evidence that Plekanec is better at faceoffs than Desharnais or vice versa. I'm not interested in hearsay and gut-feelings: gut-feelings is what causes 29 GMs in the league to take a pass on Semin because he's Russian, et cetera.

But for the sake of argument, let's assume Plekanec is a 50% faceoff guy, and Desharnais is a 48% faceoff guy, even though we have little reason to believe so. What does that mean? It means that out of 100 trials:

- Both Desharnais and Plekanec will win the faceoff 48 times. We then worry about who's better offensively after the faceoff is won.
- Both Desharnais and Plekanec will lose the faceoff 50 times. We then worry about who's better defensively after the faceoff is lost.
- Plekanec wins and Desharnais loses the faceoff, twice. We then worry about the difference between Plekanec's offense and Desharnais' offense.

Obviously option C, which happens 2% of the time (but maybe less) is bad, and relevant, but the other options based purely on the skill difference between DD and Plekanec, are forty-nine times more frequent, and are thus more important.

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