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03-22-2013, 09:55 AM
  #720
WeekendAtBernies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
If we finish last is there anyone here that doesn't think we'll be picking 2nd again lol?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Not really, no. Nothing to think the hockey gods are not through smiting this fanbase.
The process this year is significantly different than in 2007.

In 2007, we had a 48.2% chance of picking first, since you could only move up a max of 4 spots if you won the lottery. Did we get "screwed", nah not really, we lost a coin-flip. Actually the odds were slightly against us... But we were somewhat unlucky.

In 2013, the last place team has precisely a 25% chance of picking first. AKA roughly 3 years out of every 4, the team w/ the worst record won't be picking first. So even if the Flyers finish dead last, I'll be expecting to pick 2nd overall.

You can chalk it up to terrible luck, hockey gods smiting the fans, etc. but in reality we weren't "screwed". We lost a 50-50 bet. Maybe this year, we'll get "payback" and win the lottery when we only have a 18.8% (if we finish 2nd worst) or 14.2% (if we finish 3rd worst) chance.

Or maybe Seth Jones goes #1 overall to some other team and is the next in a long line of American defensemen who have disappointed in the NHL, while we end up w/ Drouin or MacK, who go on to become legitimate NHL Superstars. Who knows what's in the cards?

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