Thread: Speculation: 2013 NHL Entry Draft
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03-22-2013, 04:13 PM
  #505
J17 Vs Proclamation
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I don't think you understand statistics at all. Just to humour you, you realise you would be required to translate a formula that allows you to cross compare statistics from different leagues.





Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Regardless of what you are evaluating (hockey, etc), if you watch someone perform a skill once, compared to watching someone else perform that same skill several times, you have a better idea of how the person will do if you evaluated multiple instances.
Nichushkin and Mackinnon have played around the same number of games this year. Both players were dominant within their age groups growing up, both players have been known internationally for a few years.

Scouts have watched these players countless times. You seem to think that Russia is the magical mysterical land far far away. That for some reason, a high end men's league isn't worth bothering about. That we should simply look to the good old North American boys. News Flash ; most organisations have regional scouts for Russia/Eastern Europe. News Flash ; all scouting directors/veteran scouts in NHL organisations will have made the effort to see Nichushkin countless times.

You're so uninformed it's actually bizarre.



Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
I don't know if you have taken any statistics courses but there is such a thing called "power" of data, which involves larger sample sizes. The smaller the sample size, the less reliable the data. What I am saying is that in Russia they play WAY LESS GAMES and combined with the fact that it is far and the games are spaced out, it is much harder to scout those players well. I know you will say that is why we have a scouting department.
You don't understand data. You apparently cannot even read data. Nichushkin and Mackinnon have played roughly the same total of games this season. Both players have been prominent in other major junior tournaments both this year and last that all scouts watch.

Secondly, after 50+ odd games of hockey in a year, scouts will have watched Nichushkin enough to have a handle. Some will love him, some will not. Small sample size this is not. It's also clear you have absolutely no understand of how scouts operate, where they go, and the logic they apply.




Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Well that costs money, and if they spend as much money on our scouts as they do on our players I would worry about relying on small sample sizes from players scouted far away (and that goes for both my own evaluation of the player as a fan, as well as the team scouts).
So you've moved your argument from small sample size to money? I'd respect your ignorant uninformed opinion more if you came out and simply declared your CHL/North American bias, rather than a thinly veiled attempt to embroil your lunacy in the shambles written above.

Scouting is imperative to NHL organisations. It's the fundamental building block. Travel costs to see high end 17 year old players ain't an issue. I can assure you NHL teams will have seen plenty of Nichushkin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
A second point is that the 14 points I stated where when he actually hit real competition. I don't consider under 17 to be reliable data for NHL projection; maybe you do, thats your opinion. I'm done with this discussion though, we can agree to disagree if you want.
He's a 17 year old playing in an exceptionally high level league, playing relatively sheltered minutes. What on earth do you expect? Not withstanding you're comparing statistics that cannot be compared (CHL data to KHL data) without a cross comparison system for the data to have any merit. That ignores the salient fact that statistics to scouts aren't the be all and end all anyway. Scouts don't sit at home eating hotdogs looking at hockeydb.com.

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