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03-23-2013, 01:42 PM
  #356
worraps
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Edmonton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
I don't mean to offend anyone by this, but to the people who are adamant that we need a new goalie, do you guys actually have any experience with goaltending or any significant knowledge about the position? As in more than you would know from simply being a fan and watching all the games?

I've played the position all my life, and no, I don't think that makes me an expert who's 100% capable of analyzing and predicting an NHL goalies success, but what I can tell you is Dubey is remarkably strong technically (positionaly, good movement for his size, plays the right angles, etc). He also isn't nearly as bad in high pressure situations as people have mentioned, these late blown leads have more to to with who's on the ice at the time (petrell, brown, whichever other grinder wreck it Ralph goes with) or Petry putting it in his own net. This team has been known for blowing late leads over the last couple seasons regardless of who's in the net at the time.

I'm not going to say he's perfect, he doesn't play the puck (though half the goalies in the league won't even try it either), and yes I've seen the softies too but guess what? No matter how painful that one bad goal is to watch, it's how many goals he lets in that matters, not how they go in. Even during the first 10-15 games when Dubey was standing on his head for us and single handedly winning us games you guys still couldn't get over those occasional goals, but you need to look at the bigger picture and realize how well he's been playing outside of those moments.

As for the save % debate, yes that really is a very important stat for a goaltender. In fact it's probably the best statistical measure to evaluate them by (sv % is less effected by the team around you than the goals against average or win total). And what Dubey's save percentage tells us is that he can maintain a higher than normal percentage of saves while facing considerably more rubber than the average NHL goaltender, even with the occasional softy thrown in there. If it wasn't for those bad ones his stats would be through the roof and you guys would probably be talking vezina, not replacement.

That means that as the team develops defensively and learns to play a tighter more responsible system in their own end the shots against will decrease, which leads to other stats like goals against average and win totals improving big time. Just think how much more energy and focus the guy will have when he doesn't have to face 35+ shots every night, just speculation but that might even help out with the soft goals a little (I always found that when I let in a bad one it was usually during a time of fatigue in a game).

In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.
He's talented. No one should dispute that.

Technically, he's cleaned up his stance over the past few years (you can see the entire crest of his jersey these days which lets us know that he's playing bigger than he used to).

Sadly he still loses himself in his net quite a bit; resulting in him playing bad angles and getting beat by relatively weak shots (see Wingles goal on Wednesday). It's a mental issue. At this point I can only conclude that he's incapable of bearing down and giving a 60 minute effort. Part of the reason he faces a lot of rubber is that shooters know he lets in weak goals and show him a lot less respect than they would a Quick or even a Bobrovsky.

Million dollar talent. 5 cent head.

I'd love it if he proved me wrong.

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