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03-23-2013, 02:32 PM
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Fenwick correlates with 40% of winning (P%). So teams that win tend to have a high fenwick (loosely they tend to outshoot or out chance their competition). Correlation doesn't mean it causes winning but that teams that win tend to outshoot. 60% of the game is either not captures by Fenwick (grit, intangibles, clutchiness etc) or is luck driven (50/50 puck battles etc).

PDO is team SH% + SV%. If there is parity in the league then the PDO should be approx 1000. And so a team that has a PDO well above 1000 is either highly skilled (have elite goalie or elite shooters) OR they are benefiting by luck. The goalie SV% is higher because of bounces, a string of good and above average games etc. If the reason is luck then over the course of the season the teams PDO (shooting % and SV%) should move back towards historic average.

They are guidelines to consider but can and do breakdown. However, they may suggest a team like anaheim is playing above their heads and will eventually come crashing down. But they can't tell you when anaheim will crash - this year, next year etc. But simply, the probabilty is that they will start playing more average hockey

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