Advanced Statistics vs Team Standings
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03-23-2013, 04:33 PM
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Orange, CA
If I gamble a dollar on coin flips, and a I at it 3 times in a row, you can't tell me I am destined to lose, in order to return to a statistical average of 50/50.
However, if you tell me I am going to flip the coin 5,000 times, we can agree on a pretty much 50/50 split.
If a team has an amazing record (i.e. undefeated blackhawks) through 20 something games, its childish to say that they are destined to lose or they are destined to go on a losing streak. Of course they are. Everyone is bound to lose. No different than a team going 1-10 eventually breaking out of a slump.
People like to poop on other fan's teams, and its way easy to make yourself sound cool if you bring up fancy stats that other people have to google in order to try to refute your claims.
I love statistics. And I love sports numbers and theory. You always pop into these presidential streaks where tallest or youngest or whatever politician always wins the race... or those born earlier in the year have a better chance of winning an election.... etc. Maybe there is some truth that causes them to be reliable up to this point.
As far as Fenwick, Corsi, and teams like the Ducks go, I have read way too many people say, "Their fenwick is bad, they are going to lose". Yeah. They are. They are going to not only lose some gains, but probably get a losing streak or two. This year, playoffs, next year...
Only actually playing out a season tells the truth, because it makes the truth. If you win games, then at the end of the season, you were a good team. If you lose games, then you were a bad team.
When was the last time a team had a .600 winning percentage with a bottom 15 powerplay? A bottom 10 powerplay? A bottom 10 penalty kill during the regular season?
Lots of stats out there.
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