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03-25-2013, 06:19 PM
garret9's Avatar
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
You got that backwards. NCAA is MUCH stronger league than CHL. CHL has 16-17 year old's that couldn't come close to making NCAA rosters and are easy pickings for the top end players, compared to the more mature and better NCAA rosters filled primarily with 19-23 year old's. Sure the CHL has about as many high end players, maybe a few more, they make up only 2-3 players per roster, versus maybe only 2 per roster in NCAA. Overall the NCAA are WAAY deeper and better than CHL rosters. There are no 16 year old 4th lines to run the score up on NCAA teams like there is in CHL.

Gabriel Desjardins (founder of Arctic Ice Hockey and ran NHL pts/gp equivalencies relative to ages.
Players who transfer from NCAA to AHL or NHL the next season generally see a smaller dip in pts/gp than CHL. This was also back in 2004, which since then NCAA has furthered the gap with more aggressive and better recruitment/programming.
(0.33 NCAA -> NHL, 0.29 CHL -> NHL... again keep in mind that NCAA is much stronger now)

I'm running history on some high end defensive prospects in the 5 or so years, and the general idea is (not taking in account a huge leap in development), Trouba will either have one more year before he's doing NHL tough minutes (and surviving) but that year may be in AHL, AHL/NHL split or on sheltered 3rd pair. Any could work.

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