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03-26-2013, 04:49 PM
  #140
Talks to Goalposts
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
I don't know what these models include. Do any of then look simply
at average ice-time of opponents? That should become significant pretty
quickly.
That's been done, it ended up being so similar to corsiRel QoC that they didn't bother to keep doing it because it was essentially showing the same thing.

There was an interesting one that split forward and defensemen QoC which showed how there were some lines that get used like Desharnais does that face weaker forwards but still good defensemen. That's fairly common for your true "pure offense" lines that typically are built around offensive wingers (wingers having less defensive talent than centers) and young/inexperienced talent. Desharnais line is arguably both since the driver of results is Pacioretty, easily the teams best offensive weapon and its center is a recent graduate with questionable defensive skills.

Like I keep saying, the sheltering Desharnais gets isn't so much to make it easier to score, but primarily to avoid putting him in dangerous defensive situations. The increased scoring and better shot/scoring chance/and eventual goal differential for DD is a side effect of avoiding putting him in a position to get scored against rather than primarily about boost his point totals.

Which gets back to what I'll say about Desharnais, he's a darn fine offensive zone/playmaking specialist not the drive of results but solid as a supporting cast guy if you keep him in his role. A good way to describe it is that's he's the inverse of Hal Gill.

And now he makes a completely fair salary for that kind of supporting cast player, essentially what other top 6/9 complimentary forwards like AKostisyn and Bourque get.

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