Thread: The Tank...
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03-26-2013, 09:48 PM
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Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)

Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 5 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 16 games and have gone 7-6-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 15 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (38% Chance, or a 84% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/8 range for 12th place in the Conference


That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .368 and a point percentage of .474. Of the remaining 5 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-6-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 24% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .438), or roughly only 1~2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 77%, from .353 to .625 under Rolston.***


If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 15 games. 52 points would mean a 55.8% chance, 53 a 78.4% chance, and 54 a 92.6% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  1. Winning 11 of the 15 games which is about .750 hockey
  2. Winning 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  3. Or at least points in 80% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 15.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 30% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*


My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I see us going probably 1-3 in our next 4 (Up to the trade deadline) losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and beating Florida in OT/SO. I think we finish the final 15 games 5-8-2, so 99% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 74%, 40%, and 10% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 85%, and 46% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 59% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs

Note from earlier:

I've seemed to notice that a lot of bashing is going back and forth between people that want them to tank, want to make a run, etc. Let me try to make the civilized argument to "tanking." When we root/cheer/hope/whatever for a loss, we aren't trying to root against the team. I think it's fair to say that most of us a passionate Sabres fans that want to see the team do good, however we've just come to the conclusion that:
  • this isn't the year for us
  • we most likely won't be having the opportunity to draft this high again anytime soon
  • the high end draft talent this year is ridiculously good
  • and we want to see some changes on the team.
The Maple Leafs game was one of the funnest and best game to watch this year. I was happy that it was an entertaining game, the team showed effort, and even though I'm pro-tank, I was happy for the win. But games like tonight against Montreal (and now Tampa Bay) are what frustrate me as a fan because we were clearly outclassed and honestly won a game that we really shouldn't have.

In the end, whether you're pro-tank or anti-tank, we're all fans of the team and just want to see the team better, we just have different viewpoints on how to go about it. It's like arguing politics. Both sides think they're right and both sides have merit to them. I just hope we can keep it all civil

Last edited by sjci: 03-27-2013 at 12:54 AM. Reason: Rangers have 13 ROW not 12
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