Thread: The Tank...
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03-27-2013, 12:41 AM
  #139
jBuds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 12 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)


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Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 5 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 16 games and have gone 7-6-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 15 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (38% Chance, or a 84% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .368 and a point percentage of .474. Of the remaining 5 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-6-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 24% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .438), or roughly only 1~2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 77%, from .353 to .625 under Rolston.***

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Tank
If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 15 games. 52 points would mean a 55.8% chance, 53 a 78.4% chance, and 54 a 92.6% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  1. Winning 11 of the 15 games which is about .750 hockey
  2. Winning 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  3. Or at least points in 80% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 15.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 30% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

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My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I see us going probably 1-3 in our next 4 (Up to the trade deadline) losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and beating Florida in OT/SO. I think we finish the final 15 games 5-8-2, so 99% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 74%, 40%, and 10% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 85%, and 46% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

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In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 59% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


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Note from earlier:
Nice job

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