Calculating Magic Number
View Single Post
03-27-2013, 10:20 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Originally Posted by
sportsclubstats simulation thinks pittsburgh can clinch (playoffs, nothing else) with a win against montreal tomorrow.
unlike magic number calculations, it takes into account games played between all teams. Unfortunately it's weighting system probably leads to premature clinches.
edit: nm, last night's simulation puts them back up to 57pts to clinch, which is more reasonable. I think it was glitched because out of 1.8B simulations, only one had pittsburgh just getting 52 points, and that simulation also ended up having them in the playoffs. On the west side it's showing ~60 pts right now. With losses to 9/10 seeds and a few more wins, those three teams should clinch in the first week of april.
Well to be fair Sportsclubstats doesn't calculate mathematical clinches, it just simulates the games 10,000,000 times and then if it can't find a scenario where the team misses, then the "clinch" label goes up. What that really means, "there is a less than 1 in 10,000,000 chance that they will miss the playoffs."
View Public Profile
Hammer Time's albums
Find More Posts by Hammer Time