Algorythm to predict goalie performance in NHL
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03-30-2013, 02:16 PM
Join Date: Sep 2005
Two of the most important steps are to (1) normalize for the scoring environment in the league, and (2) normalize for the quality of the league relative to the NHL (for instance, goaltenders moving from the AHL to the NHL might have statistics that look 15% worse).
does the first. I'm working on some things for the second, but they aren't ready to publish yet.
In lower leagues, it's probably also worth adjusting for strength of schedule (it's probably valuable in the NHL, but it certainly has more effect in lower leagues with less parity).
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