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03-31-2013, 11:21 PM
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Originally Posted by number72 View Post
Fenwick correlates with 40% of winning (P%). So teams that win tend to have a high fenwick (loosely they tend to outshoot or out chance their competition). Correlation doesn't mean it causes winning but that teams that win tend to outshoot. 60% of the game is either not captures by Fenwick (grit, intangibles, clutchiness etc) or is luck driven (50/50 puck battles etc).

PDO is team SH% + SV%. If there is parity in the league then the PDO should be approx 1000. And so a team that has a PDO well above 1000 is either highly skilled (have elite goalie or elite shooters) OR they are benefiting by luck. The goalie SV% is higher because of bounces, a string of good and above average games etc. If the reason is luck then over the course of the season the teams PDO (shooting % and SV%) should move back towards historic average.

They are guidelines to consider but can and do breakdown. However, they may suggest a team like anaheim is playing above their heads and will eventually come crashing down. But they can't tell you when anaheim will crash - this year, next year etc. But simply, the probabilty is that they will start playing more average hockey
This is the best assessment I've seen of the currently used advanced hockey stats. Thank you.

So often I see everything not captured by the formula du jour thrown out fans of these formulas as "just luck" and I don't think that attitude helps anything.

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