Variation in Goaltender Performance
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04-01-2013, 11:48 PM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Very quiet this evening - or I've dulled you all with tables of boring numbers.
I calculated a measure of dispersion (sort of a single unifying measure of variation in performance), first by measuring the "average" performance of a goaltender, then calculating the normed mean distance away from that average over the course of the season (the two-norm, for the mathies out there).
A perfectly consistent goaltender (one who ends up with a performance in the same bucket each time out) would score out at zero variation.
These are the five least consistent goaltenders of the NHL 2012-13 season so far:
Josh Harding (1.97)
Chris Mason (1.51)
Miikka Kiprusoff (1.47)
Yann Danis (1.29)
Richard Bachman (1.29)
And the five most consistent goaltenders of the NHL 2012-13 season so far (limiting to just those with eight or more appearances):
Robin Lehner (0.48)
J-S Giguere (0.59)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.68)
Jason LaBarbera (0.71)
Jacob Markstrom (0.72).
Does that sniff about right? For comparison's sake, here is what "consistent" Robin Lehner looks like:
1-2 OT loss to Boston (44 saves on 46 shots)
2-3 SO loss to NY Islanders (33 saves on 35 shots)
3-2 win to NY Rangers (33 saves on 35 shots)
2-3 SO loss to Boston (33 saves on 35 shots)
3-4 SO loss to Montreal (42 saves on 45 shots)
4-1 win to Winnipeg (25 saves on 26 shots)
1-2 loss to Boston (27 saves on 29 shots)
5-3 win to Tampa Bay (29 saves on 32 shots)
That one looks pretty good. How about "inconsistent" Josh Harding?
1-0 win to Dallas (24 saves on 24 shots)
3-5 loss to Detroit (22 saves on 27 shots)
3-2 SO win to Chicago (2 saves on 4 shots, pulled for Backstrom)
1-4 loss to Vancouver (6 saves on 6 shots, replaced Backstrom)
Maybe I should have restricted the inconsistent goalies to 8 or more games. Chris Mason fits that bill:
3-1 win to Minnesota (29 saves on 30 shots)
1-2 OT loss to Minnesota (30 saves on 32 shots)
5-6 loss to Colorado (12 saves on 18 shots)
1-5 loss to Anaheim (7 saves on 7 shots, replaced Rinne)
1-5 loss to Los Angeles (3 saves on 3 shots, replaced Rinne)
4-7 loss to Vancouver (7 saves on 9 shots, replaced Rinne)
3-6 loss to Calgary (16 saves on 19 shots, replaced Rinne)
4-7 loss to Phoenix (6 saves on 9 shots, replaced by Rinne).
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