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04-02-2013, 01:21 AM
  #652
pdd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
There was never a large gap between. They were trading elite seasons in 1992-93 and 1993-94, with Fedorov pulling ahead when they both had strong 1995-96 seasons. Then Coffey left Detroit and Fedorov's resume became exclusively supported by the playoffs while Selanne peaked in 1996-97 (2nd in Goals, 2nd in Points), 1997-98 (1st in Goals, Hart Nominee), 1998-99 (1st in Goals, 2nd in Points). Fedorov didn't have three seasons as good as that in the NHL.

The best season? Yes (1994 vs. 1998)
Second best? No (1996 vs. 1999)
Third best? No (2003 vs. 1997)
Fourth best? No (1995 vs. 1993)
Fifth best? No (2000 vs. 1996)
Sixth best? No (1992 vs. 2007)
Seventh best? No (1993 vs. 2011)
Eighth best? No (1997 vs. 2000)
Ninth best? No (2002 vs. 2006)
Tenth best? Now it's getting close again (1991 vs. 2001)
How exactly did you come to that ordering of seasons, and what makes you decide which one is better?

Fedorov from 1993-94 through 1995-96 was better offensively every season. The same was true for 2001-02 through 2003-04. That's six each pre-2004 on offense alone. Selanne takes all four after the 2004-05 lockout.

But as we're at a 10-6 score, how do we decide what kind of role Fedorov's defense plays in this? Fedorov played defense-first hockey; Selanne played offense-only. So logically, one could make the statement that Fedorov's defense is worth just as much as his offense. If you consider that a player has a ~50% chance of getting a point if he is on the ice when a goal is scored, then consider the fact that teams generally get ~15 scoring chances per game, and the average 5.5GPG from the DPE, combined with the historic ~85% scoring ratio of F/D, and we have the following:

~1.46 points awarded per forward line per game
~0.34 points awarded per defense pairing per game
~12 failed/prevented scoring chances per team

If we assume that an elite forward plays 1/3 of the game on average (~20 minutes), then that's ~1.95 points for his line from 2.75 goals.

Furthering that, given that preventing a goal is equivalent to scoring a goal when it comes to actually winning at hockey, a player who prevents 30 goals more than another player, and is involved on 20 fewer offensively, is likely the better player. Selanne/Fedorov is a more extreme example; Selanne's advantage offensively in the late 1990s wasn't worth what Fedorov prevented defensively.

Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
I've said that Fedorov was better in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. I've said that Selanne's injury is the proximate cause for his decline - not his separation from Paul Kariya, as you have claimed.

I will never respond to you again, because you have shown an inability to discuss hockey on HOH without deliberately using strawman arguments and talking about Steve Yzerman.
And I've repeatedly stated that the primary argument in favor of Selanne - his post-lockout renaissance and longevity - is completely wiped away if you insist on making injury excuses for Selanne's poor stretch of years. The Yzerman example was a point that another great offensive player who also relied on his skating suffered a severe knee injury (actually, more severe than Selanne's) and was able to adapt and play at a high level. Selanne spent four years performing at a mediocre level. Whether that was injury or chemistry/support, who knows. But it's a situation where other great skaters (Bure and LaFontaine come to mind) who have suffered knee injuries were not turned into mediocre second liners, but were instead able to maintain a high level of production. In both Bure's case and LaFontaine's case they retired earlier than they *should* have due to injury, but that would have been true of Selanne as well had the lockout not occurred in 2004.

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