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04-04-2013, 10:10 AM
  #450
caps4cup
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post

Erat is an 'okayish' 2nd line player. Forsberg is a potential impact prospect. The sort of guy who could be HUGE down the line. And in terms of floor...Forsberg has the tools to where his downside looks like that of a 2nd line winger with the size teams covet.

As a deal...that's a whole lot of upside to give up for a proven mediocre player.
Erat's numbers the last seven seasons, if he would have played in all 82 games:

06/07 - 68
07/08 - 62
08/09 - 58
09/10 - 54
10/11 - 64
11/12 - 67
12/13 - 48

Looks like he's been averaging about 60 points per full season. That's not necessarily an "okay" 2nd liner considering there's only about 40-45 players each year that score more points than that... Also not bashing Forsberg but there's no guarantee he ever reaches that point total. His ceiling has come into question many times. If anything he's the one that could be an "okay" 2nd liner, while Erat is certainly a solid 1st line player at this point.

Also, earlier in your post you said there's no guarantee he'd score more, but there's a very good chance considering his best linemate was probably Legwand who would be 3rd line on Washington.

I don't think the Caps should've traded Forsberg but its quite annoying to see posts such as this where Erat is being sold short, and Forsberg is being overrated. He's a very good prospect but will likely max out at 60-70 points, if that, as his upside isn't as high as other highly rated prospects. There's a decent chance he never reaches Erat's level of production.

A few other things to think about as well:

1. The Caps still have Kuznetsov who is a fair margin better than Forsberg (not a knock on Forsberg as Kuz is one of the best prospects in the world). So that leaves Ovechkin, Johansson, Brouwer, Laich, Kuznetsov on the wing as well as Erat now and Wilson next year.

2. Even if the Caps miss the playoffs the trade could be seen as Erat + Latta + top 14 pick for Forsberg, in a way. I'd take a proven top line winger in Erat + two unproven prospects over 2 unproven prospects.


Last edited by caps4cup: 04-04-2013 at 10:21 AM.
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