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04-04-2013, 01:34 PM
  #17
Trxjw
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
I see what you're trying to do here and I think it's oversimplified and flawed for a couple of reasons:

1) You can't judge the value of a Ranger draft pick based on other team's talent evaluation.

2) Going five or even ten picks passed the player who was selected isn't really telling. Again, it comes down to talent evaluation. Take the Panther's second #1 pick in the 2003 draft (25 overall), Anthony Stewart. The five picks after Stewart were (Boyle, Tambellini, Perry, Eaves and Belle). But taken 9 picks later was Loui Erikkson and taken 20 picks later was Patrice Bergeron. Those players were available when Florida had there second first round pick. Does that make the pick less valuable because they didn't pick one of those other guys? Or did they just make a bad pick based on Florida's own scouts and draft board? A better question is if they had drafted Erikkson or Bergeron would that have made the pick more valuable?

3) A value of a draft pick is not solely based on who is selected. Picks can be used to move up in a draft if there's a player you really want (Rangers for Staal, for instance).

4) Obviously, more picks won't make it than will.

So, yes, looking at picks in a vacuum and with the benefit of hindsight will make them appear less valuable. And in a salary cap world, they become even more valuable as teams need to be able to reach into their farm systems for cheap, young, and controllable talent.
Very well said.

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