Thread: Speculation: 2013 Offseason Goalie Market
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04-04-2013, 01:43 PM
  #18
canucksfan100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
There are a lot of people talking about a goalie glut this offseason and I wanted to throw the following Canuck-centric analysis out there.....I try to be as unbviased as I can be.

Teams that are set in goal through the start of next season assuming no management changes or surprises in the playoffs. This list teams nobody really debates if they have a legit starter for next season. I assume Miller is going to be traded. Like all the other keepers on my list.....his availability adds a goalie on the market AND adds a buyer.


Set for next year
  • Pittsburgh
  • Boston
  • Ottawa
  • NYR
  • Carolina
  • Montreal
  • San Jose
  • Chicago
  • Anaheim
  • LA
  • Vancouver
  • Nashville
  • Columbus
  • Dallas
  • Colorado
  • Edmonton
Wildcards Likely Set for Next Year
  • St Louis*
  • Toronto*
  • Tampa*
  • Winnipeg*


Starters/Elite Prospects Potentially Available Next Year:
  • Luongo/Schneider (Trade)
  • Miller (Trade)
  • Smith (UFA)
  • Backstrom (UFA)
  • Halak (Trade)
  • Hiller (Trade)
  • Bernier (Trade)
  • Bryzgalov (UFA*)
  • Khudobin (UFA)
  • Howard (UFA)
Aging Veterans that Could Start
  • Nabokov
  • Kipper
Players Potentially Done
  • Khabby
  • Kipper
  • Brodeur
  • Bryzgalov
  • Theodore
  • Hedberg
  • Biron
  • Harding
Youngsters that may not be ready to start
  • Allen
  • Holtby
  • Markstrom
  • Bernier
Goalies that are either not ready or will never be ready for the starting job
  • Nilson/Poulin - Backups or not ready
  • Hackett - Not ready. Good potential.
  • Lehner - One more year as a backup. All world talent.
  • Campbell - Not ready
  • Visentin - Not ready
  • Elliott - Not good enough
  • Subban - Years away
Potentially Open Starting Seats
  • Washington
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • Florida
  • New Jersey
  • Calgary
  • Minnesota
  • Phoenix
  • Toronto
  • Detroit
  • St Louis
Past Openings Currently Filled
  • Chicago - Unless there is a first round meltdown, they are sorted for now
  • San Jose - Niemi has been the MVP with Thornton
  • Columbus - Bob's doing great
How it could play out...my SWAG


Washington - I think Holtby can keep it together. No change
NYI - Miller. They have the assets to acquire him and the cap space. They could cheap out and go with Nabby another year, but the players in the system are not worthy of missing out on a big fish. Miller wants to go west but LA/SJ/ANA are all sorted in net. Pheonix won't be able to pay the cap cost.
Philly - Schneider/Luongo. Bryz is a buyout.
Buffalo - Bryzgalov. If they trade Miller, I think they get left without a seat just like Calgary below. Sign a vet and try out the youth.
Florida - Markstrom. The future is now. He is ready. Maybe bring back Theodore for one more year and ditch Clemmenson. Markstrom is NHL ready. They need a reliable veteran backup, not an aging star starter. Tallon would be a fool to trade for Lou.
New Jersey - Bernier. One year to learn from Brodeur. Perfect fit IMO. They have a few assets that LA would want to make a deal.
Calgary - Khudobin. I think they'll roll the dice on a cheaper option. I expect they will lose the bidding war with NJ on Bernier simply due to divisional rivalry. Bryzgalov is another possibility.
Minnesota - Backstrom. Deserves another contract with Minny. Better the devil you know for both parties.
Phoenix - Smith This situation could get quite strange. In my books, Smith is a product of a system, and is very overrated. He has not played that well this season and has a pretty high opinion of his worth. Phoenix is not going to break the bank to sign him but don't have a lot of options. They could make a play for Khudobin or even try a deal with Anaheim for Hiller...but in the end I think Smith will realize he has as good a thing going as he is ever going to have.
Toronto - Kipper. Fatal half measures yet again. If Kipper retires and Reimer/Scrivens show weakness, I am not sure how patient that fan base is going to be. Nonis may not have a lot of pressure, but that Reimer goalie of the future thing has been sold for three years.
Detroit - Howard re-signs, they have no trade fodder and better the devil you know
St Louis - Halak/Allen. I think the improved D will keep this tandem together and cash constraints as well. If Halak fails and Allen is clearly not ready, they will be players this summer for sure.
Tampa Bay - Bishop/Lindback Stevie will live in denial to start the year at least. One of these guys may emerge as a legit starter. Both required overpayment to acquire and both have serious question marks.


Remaining Goalies and Wildcards

Hiller starts year in Anaheim. Poor numbers and Fasth' relative inexperience means the return of the two headed monster next year IMO. Hiller will be available later in the year if Fasth remains as good as he is now. They can afford to be patient with their decisions. If Hiller was on the market it would balance things out between spaces available and goalies avilable. If he stays in Anaheim to start next season there is one more spot available than starters to fill it.

Winnipeg is a wild card in that Schneider's availability and the relations between the teams could make a deal possible. I have to think they are not loving the numbers that Pavalec has put up even though he should get better than he is.

Pittsburgh could enter the market if Fleury can't get it done this year. I personally think Fleury redeems himself.



Conclusion

I fail to see how anyone thinks there is a goalie glut this offseason. While I assume that Philly is a certainty to buy out Bryz and that Miller is on the market, if any one of Washington, Tampa, Toronto, or St Louis experience a stumble there is goign to be real demand for goalies and a shortage of supply. If Kipper retires, or Nabby or Bryz return to Russia maybe moreso. Hiller can fill one opening, and maybe Nabby is an option for another year, but what I see is sufficient demand to find a home for Lou and a potential bidding war for Schneider if he is made available. There will also be a bidding war for Bernier. Miller will attract bids from at least four teams IMO.


Bidders on Schneider if available
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • New Jersey
  • NYI
  • Minnesota
  • TB *
  • Winnipeg*
Serious Bernier bidding should be between
  • Calgary
  • New Jersey
  • Phoenix
with New Jersey edging the others out on geography.



Candidates for Luongo
  • Toronto (I would not trade with them at this point if I was Gillis)
  • New Jersey
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • St Louis *
  • Vancouver *
Candidates for Miller
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Toronto
  • Phoenix
  • St Louis *
The only likely candidates for Luongo are TB(Prob Not Anymore), TOR, FLA, NYI(If Nabakov Doesnt Return), Philly and a wildcard would be NJ(If Brodeur retires) and

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