The value of draft picks.
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04-04-2013, 03:43 PM
Join Date: Mar 2010
Originally Posted by
That's really interesting and I need to favorite this post to reference it next time someone flips out about losing a 3rd round pick because the guy is worth "no more than a 4th". Seems like everything after the 1st round is a crap shoot. The 51st pick and 90th next are pretty much the same damn thing.
The one question I have is that unless I'm missing something, some of the numbers may not be accurate. For example, you mention the amount of players that played 700+ games being top NHL players/veterans. The 2003 draft was ridiculously stacked but none of them have reached 700 games played yet. The same thing for the 2004 draft and I'm sure most of the 2002 draft. A lot of those guys are team captains, first line player, or stars but still don't fit the 700 game criteria. Did you factor in the fact that some of the guys in the more recent drafts literally havent been in the league long enough to play 700 games? Also goalies can play an entire successful HOF career without ever starting 700 games. Maybe you mentioned these things but I just missed it.
Awesome post though.
Ah, you touched on something I completely forgot to mention, from 2002 to 2004 I effectively 'predicted' if the players will make 700 or 400, by looking at if they are still in the NHL now, how many games they have averaged the last 3 years, how many games to those milestones, and if without injury they would reach 700 or 400. There were not too many (surprisingly, at one point I thought about leaving it at 2001 as I thought it would be too hard) who were tricky, though there were maybe 5 I was unsure of...
The year to year figures with my predicted games were quite similar in terms of players making those milestones as with earlier years, with no outlying years (ofc 2003 was high, but that is one crazy draft) so I decided to include those last three, the years 2002-2004 added on changed no percentage of any by more that 5% (of the percentages themselves, so say 60% of picks 16-20 played 200 from 1990-2001 the figure did not go lower than 57 or higher than 63% with the predicted stats.) That was why I stopped at 2004, as it was not too bad to predict, anything later seemed to impinge on the data.
For example: Richards, Carter, Getzlaf seem locks for 700 without injury.
As for goaltenders, I thought about doing a separate one for them, but then thought the 1-5 etc would be compromised, as they are picked with everyone else, and the aim was mainly to see how good a player you have a chance of getting, including goalies, and also pretty much every one of serious merit hits 400.
I may look into the goalies separately at some point, to see if they are more unpredictable.
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