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04-04-2013, 09:48 PM
  #27
Tripod
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
With a few people getting mad at losing a 3rd rounder in the Mason deal, it got me wondering the chance a 3rd rounder actually turned into a serviceable NHL player. Therefore I decided to look into it.

I looked through each draft from 1990-2004, working out the percentages of the 1st to 4th rounds producing players who play 200 games, 400 games, 700 games and All Star players (players who made an allstar team either mid season or end of season awards.) 4059 players overall went into the analysis.

I chose these as cut off as 200-399 seems right for a useful 4th liner or 3rd pair D who has a 3-7 year career. 400-699 is a player who generally made a decent impact on the league, playing 5-10 years and in some cases being well known, usually 2nd-3rd liners and 2nd pair or stay home D men. 700+ are generally some of the best at what they do in the NHL, 10+ years and well regarded round the league. All-star speaks for itself.

I also looked at the later rounds, though only as a whole, as after about pick 120 it is just pot luck seemingly.

I went further in depth on the top 120 picks, dividing them into brackets of 5 to see whether an early 3rd, for example, is worth much more than a late 3rd, or is it even equal to a late 2nd.

Here are the more general results:

1st round:

200 GP: 64%, 400 GP: 53.6%, 700 GP: 38%, All-Star: 22.9%

2nd round:

200 GP: 28%, 400 GP: 19%, 700 GP: 12%, All-Star: 5.33%

3rd round:

200 GP: 22%, 400 GP: 15.8%, 700 GP: 7.33%, All-Star: 4.22%

4th round:

200 GP: 13.8%, 400 GP: 8.2%, 700 GP: 4.2%, All-Star: 2.7%

5th round onwards:

200 GP: 10.4%, 400 GP: 6.8%, 700 GP: 3.5%, All-Star: 1.9%

From this it seems that 1st are literally worth their weight in gold, about a 250% more chance of finding a useful player than a 2nd, and 400% more likely to find a great player.

2nds and 3rds seem closer in value, with 2 3rd round picks definitely worth more than a 2nd.

4th round is further from a 3rd than a 3rd is a 2nd, two 4ths equal a tiny bit more than a 3rd.

5th onwards are actually not worth much less than a 4th, a 5th and a 7th is almost certainly more valuable statistically than a 4th. Also, a 5th, 6th and 7th are worth more than a 3rd, and only slightly less than a 2nd, as there is less chance of a top end player, but those three picks have more chance of a useful NHLer than one 2nd!

Now for a more in depth breakdown of picks in brackets of 5.

1st round

1-5: 200 GP: 93.33%, 400 GP: 89.33%, 700 GP: 76%, All-Star: 48%
6-10: 200 GP: 70.7%, 400 GP: 57.33%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
16-20: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 45.3%, 700 GP: 25.3%, All-Star: 14.7%
21-25: 200 GP: 60%, 400 GP: 44%, 700 GP: 29.3%, All-Star: 16%
26-30: 200 GP: 45.3%, 400 GP: 34.7%, 700 GP: 20%, All-Star: 10.7%

2nd round

31-35: 200 GP: 28%, 400 GP: 17.3%, 700 GP: 10.7%, All-Star: 6.7%
36-40: 200 GP: 33.3%, 400 GP: 24%, 700 GP: 13.3%, All-Star: 6.7%
41-45: 200 GP: 28%, 400 GP: 22.7%, 700 GP: 12%, All-Star: 4%
46-50: 200 GP: 28%, 400 GP: 22.7%, 700 GP: 16%, All-Star: 5.3%
51-55: 200 GP: 24%, 400 GP: 14.7%, 700 GP: 9.3%, All-Star: 6.7%
56-60: 200 GP: 24%, 400 GP: 13.3%, 700 GP: 10.7%, All-Star: 2.7%

3rd round

61-65: 200 GP: 25.3%, 400 GP: 18.7%, 700 GP: 10.7%, All-Star: 6.7%
66-70: 200 GP: 20%, 400 GP: 17.3%, 700 GP: 4%, All-Star: 1.3%
71-75: 200 GP: 26.7%, 400 GP: 20%, 700 GP: 9.3%, All-Star: 4%
76-80: 200 GP: 17.3%, 400 GP: 12%, 700 GP: 4%, All-Star: 4%
81-85: 200 GP: 20%, 400 GP: 10.7%, 700 GP: 6.7%, All-Star: 4%
86-90: 200 GP: 22.6%, 400 GP: 16%, 700 GP: 9.3%, All-Sta: 5.3%

4th round

91-95: 200 GP: 20%, 400 GP: 12%, 700 GP: 5.3%, All-Star: 4%
96-100: 200 GP: 16%, 400 GP: 10.6%, 700 GP: 5.3%, All-Star: 2.7%
101-105: 200 GP: 12%, 400 GP: 6.7%, 700 GP: 4%, All-Star: 0%
106-110: 200 GP: 13.3%, 400 GP: 6.7%, 700 GP: 4%, All-Star: 1.3%
111-115: 200 GP: 9.3%, 400 GP: 5.3%, 700 GP: 2.7%, All-Star: 2.7%
116-120: 200 GP: 12%, 400 GP: 8%, 700 GP: 4%, All-Star: 5.3%

Pretty interesting IMO, it shows how well NHL team are spotting and assessing talent, at least in the top 120, as there are very few outliers through the rounds, and a definite trend with the lower in the draft, the less likely picks are going to play in the NHL.

You can almost break it up into brackets where the quality of players drop off (on average)

Top 5: Twice as good as 6-15.
6-15: Pretty equal through these ten, 15 and 6 pretty similar picks.
16-25: As above with 6-15, these are similar quality.
26-30: Better than any second rounder but a cut below other firsts.
30-50: Similar throughout, true 2nd rounders.
51-65: Worse than the '2nd' rounders, but the 1st five of the 3rd are equal to last 10 of 2nd.
66-100: Little statistical difference, these picks, pretty much all the 3rd and the start of 4th, are interchangeable.
101-120: All similar to the 5th round onwards... suggesting after pick 100 it does become a crapshoot, though 100-120 have more chance of hitting gold than after, even if bit part and useful players are similar.

Hope you enjoyed reading!
This needs to be posted on the Main Boards and kept for reference forever. Great to have during drafts and the deadline.

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