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04-07-2013, 01:57 PM
Unwelcome Spectre
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Country: United States
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Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
Thanks for keeping this up ... I am really interested in seeing how a win today affects our chances of a division title.
Someone else can actually talk about the percentage chances of a title -- that's more details stats analysis than my simple algorithm can handle.

But in terms of the math it CAN handle, a win today would bring Anaheim's projected points total at the end of the season down to 68 (it currently sits at 69). The Kings' maximum points would still be 67, meaning that Anaheim needs to falter down the stretch for the Kings to have a realistic chance.

Looking at it another way, if we just think of it like baseball, the Kings are four games behind with 10 to play. Two of those the Kings have direct influence on in today's and the one other remaining head-to-head. IF the Kings win both of those, then they would have to do two games better in the remaining eight in order to tie -- so if Anaheim goes 5-3, the Kings would need to go 7-1. If Anaheim goes 6-2, the Kings would need to go 8-0.

So... it's not impossible... but a longshot unless the lack of Getzlaf puts Anaheim into a tailspin in this tail end of the season.

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