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04-09-2013, 01:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I've posted two articles in here in the past where the author digs up as many scoring chance stats as he can get, from organizations and the media, and he found a correlation between scoring chances and shots allowed. So basically, it would be a huge statistical aberration for a team in the top ten for limiting shots to be at the bottom of the league for scoring chances against.

Watching other teams and their goalies, they give up odd man rushes and breakaways. They have bad periods, get stuck in their end, and give up quality shots. The difference? The goaltender actually keeps the team in the game more often than not, instead of inevitably collapsing like Bryz tends to do. It's really quite a difference.

It was far more obvious last year, when our offense was very good. We could watch the opposing goalie make a lot of quality stops on our shots, then in our end Bryz would immediately let something in.
Kings fan here. I did some research about a week ago for a piece I wrote for The Hockey Writers about the NHL's top five defenses. I said there, and reiterate here, that I could not avoid subjectivity in terms of what to use in the data analysis. With that said, I ranked every NHL team as of that date in the following statistical categories:
  • Goals allowed
  • Shots allowed
  • Blocked shots
  • Takeaways
  • Faceoffs
  • Hits

I decided equal weighting wouldn't make sense, since goals allowed (no matter what the reason, be it quality shots, bad goaltending, or other variables) is clearly the most important factor. I gave that category the highest weighting (40%), shots allowed the second highest (20%) and everything else equal weighting at 10% apiece.

Lastly, I created a simple formula to calculate a composite score for each NHL team based upon the above parameters. In the end, the higher the number, the worse the team was defensively.

Bottom line: the Flyers were 21st in the league, which is obviously not good. However, they were 3rd in blocked shots, 5th in hits and 9th in shots allowed. By the numbers, their defense is doing at least some of the things it is supposed to do very well. Goals allowed (24th), takeaways (30th) and faceoffs (20th) dragged their ranking down substantially.

Statistics don't show whether or not the Flyers are giving up too many good scoring chances as compared to a higher-ranked team. That said, there's a pretty good statistical case to be made that goaltending is a bigger problem than defense in Philadelphia.

Here's the link, in case you'd like to see the article. If you feel it's inappropriate for me to post this, feel free to delete:

I hope you don't feel that I'm trolling, as I don't have a rooting interest for or against Bryz.

G'aal is offline