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04-09-2013, 08:02 AM
Jack de la Hoya
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Standing as of April 9th.

It looks like the Flyers have no shot of Top 5 anymore as Colorado. Calgary, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina look like pretty much locks for those spots. A win tonight by the Flyers could put them in a tie with 3 other teams in the 8-11 range.
Colorado almost certainly will finish last--three points "behind" with a fairly tricky schedule (ANA, LAK, VAN, CBJ, EDM, STL, STL, PHX, MIN).

Calgary is a bad team, though they probably have a slightly easier schedule, by virtue of having Nashville left, as well as Edmonton. (VAN, PHX, EDM, MIN, DET, ANA, MIN, NSH, STL, CHI).

Florida has the potential to win three or four games down the stretch (WPG, PIT, NYI, NYR, NJD, BOS, NYR, TOR, TB)

If I had to guess, Colorado finishes last, followed by Calgary and Florida.

Florida could conceivable pass Tampa, particular if they win that last game of the year, but Tampa also has games against OTT, BUF, WSH, WPG, and CAR), so as bad as they have been, I don't necessarily think that they will end up 4th from the bottom--they could pretty easily end up with 40+ points.

Carolina is playing poorly with a hard schedule remaining (PIT, WSH, BOS, OTT, WPG, PHI, TB, NYI, NYR, PIT). Unless they score a few upsets, I think they might end up in the 4th slot

Nashville could end up bottom 5 as well.

If I had to guess, as of today, I think the end of the year will end up looking something like this:

30. Colorado - 33 points
29. Calgary - 37 points
28. Florida - 38 points
27. Carolina - 40 points
26. Tampa Bay - 41 points
25. Nashville - 44 points

Flyers, Sabres, Blue Jackets, Stars, Oilers, and Jets will likely follow in some order, so we could be anywhere from 7th to 12th or so. (On the other hand, if the Flyers go like 2-7-1 down the stretch, losing in regulation to both Buffalo and Carolina, they'd likely end up right around 6th spot.)

Finishing 8+ would likely take Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nurse, Lindholm, and Monahan off the board--plus one other player. Nichushkin's a wild card--I could see Tampa taking him, given their recent bias toward Russians.

Worst case scenario for the Flyers would be a top eight of Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nurse, Lindholm, Monahan, and Ristolainen, leaving Nichushkin as the BPA and someone like Zadorov or Pulock behind him.

At that point, I think you at least consider moving the pick for a more developed prospect, or throw it + Laughton together in a deal for an established top-2 defenseman.

Last edited by Jack de la Hoya: 04-09-2013 at 08:39 AM.
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