NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread
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04-09-2013, 08:17 AM
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: photoshop labor camp
Originally Posted by
Not according to their methodology. Any Philly win helps the Devils more than any Isles win, if you're going by their site. So an Isles regulation win is not as helpful as a Philly OT or Shootout win.
If you're trusting in how they do their site, then you want an Isles loss any way you can get it, with loss in regulation being the best.
I don't know what you're trying to say that I said but I never said an Islander win improved our odds - only that it eliminates Philly from a playoff spot basically by having less than a 7% chance at that point of getting in. If Philly wins they are almost tied in odds with us based on remaining schedule. That's something a day to day look can't tell you.
You can't look at each day as a snapshot or you will be requiring long streaks of wins and losses to unfold which are not practical if you really want a feel for the playoff race. That site shows the tipping point being 52 points for the Devils.
52 pts will be about a coin flip of odds we get in. 51 and we're pretty much out unless something miraculous happens. 54 pts and we're a lock. But it also shows we're most likely to finish with 49-51 pts at this point which is only 20% to get in in all those scenarios.
That seems realistic to me. 54 pts is a pipe dream.
I'll just tuck this away here and we can look back after this is all over and see if the most likely outcomes actually did play out.
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