NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread
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04-09-2013, 08:31 AM
Join Date: Jun 2008
Originally Posted by
I don't know what you're trying to say that I said but I never said an Islander win improved our odds - only that it eliminates Philly from a playoff spot basically by having less than a 7% chance at that point of getting in. If Philly wins they are almost tied in odds with us based on remaining schedule. That's something a day to day look can't tell you.
You can't look at each day as a snapshot or you will be requiring long streaks of wins and losses to unfold which are not practical if you really want a feel for the playoff race. That site shows the tipping point being 52 points for the Devils.
52 pts will be about a coin flip of odds we get in. 51 and we're pretty much out unless something miraculous happens. 54 pts and we're a lock. But it also shows we're most likely to finish with 49-51 pts at this point which is only 20% to get in in all those scenarios.
That seems realistic to me. 54 pts is a pipe dream.
I'll just tuck this away here and we can look back after this is all over and see if the most likely outcomes actually did play out.
You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.
You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.
If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.
So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.
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