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04-09-2013, 08:31 AM
  #30
Devils731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richer's Ghost View Post
I don't know what you're trying to say that I said but I never said an Islander win improved our odds - only that it eliminates Philly from a playoff spot basically by having less than a 7% chance at that point of getting in. If Philly wins they are almost tied in odds with us based on remaining schedule. That's something a day to day look can't tell you.

You can't look at each day as a snapshot or you will be requiring long streaks of wins and losses to unfold which are not practical if you really want a feel for the playoff race. That site shows the tipping point being 52 points for the Devils.

52 pts will be about a coin flip of odds we get in. 51 and we're pretty much out unless something miraculous happens. 54 pts and we're a lock. But it also shows we're most likely to finish with 49-51 pts at this point which is only 20% to get in in all those scenarios.

That seems realistic to me. 54 pts is a pipe dream.

I'll just tuck this away here and we can look back after this is all over and see if the most likely outcomes actually did play out. http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s...ps9dee7b95.jpg
You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.

You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.

If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.

So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.

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