NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread
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04-09-2013, 10:18 AM
This guy can coach
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: photoshop labor camp
Originally Posted by
You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.
You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.
If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.
So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with
you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.
3 pt games DO hurt the Devils odds.
I don't think you know how to read that site or even what I was saying.
Current Odds for Devils making Playoffs:
Devils are IN
tonight's game Philly @ Islanders:
Isles Reg win:
Isles OT win:
Isles SO win:
Philly SO win:
Philly OT win:
Philly Reg win:
(Only scenario where Devils odds actually go UP after tonight)
Notice that ALL THE 3 PT OUTCOMES are lower than the Regulation outcomes for each winner AND lower the Devils odds of making the playoffs? (18 < 19 for Isles win; 20 < 22 for Philly win). Loser points HURT.
Also note that if Philly wins in either OT or Regulation, they have a HIGHER% odds to make the playoffs than the Devils at that point. That means we got passed because even though they are still 1 point behind us, based on the # of games remaining and who they play, the odds are favoring them (ever so slightly). So even though a Philly win freezes the Isles, it brings Philly neck and neck with us. These are the complexities that a simple cheer for the Flyers stance doesn't show you. Philly is either going to drop to 10% or less tonight with a loss, or jump to around 20% with a win and thus be right in the thick of it with us. That compared to about a 2% drop if the Islanders win compared to where we are today.
So cheer for whatever outcome you like, the odds are against us either way.
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