NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread
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04-09-2013, 09:18 AM
Mr. Ferguson to you
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: photoshop labor camp
Originally Posted by
You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.
You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.
If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.
So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with
you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.
3 pt games DO hurt the Devils odds.
I don't think you know how to read that site or even what I was saying.
Current Odds for Devils making Playoffs:
Devils are IN
tonight's game Philly @ Islanders:
Isles Reg win:
Isles OT win:
Isles SO win:
Philly SO win:
Philly OT win:
Philly Reg win:
(Only scenario where Devils odds actually go UP after tonight)
Notice that ALL THE 3 PT OUTCOMES are lower than the Regulation outcomes for each winner AND lower the Devils odds of making the playoffs? (18 < 19 for Isles win; 20 < 22 for Philly win). Loser points HURT.
Also note that if Philly wins in either OT or Regulation, they have a HIGHER% odds to make the playoffs than the Devils at that point. That means we got passed because even though they are still 1 point behind us, based on the # of games remaining and who they play, the odds are favoring them (ever so slightly). So even though a Philly win freezes the Isles, it brings Philly neck and neck with us. These are the complexities that a simple cheer for the Flyers stance doesn't show you. Philly is either going to drop to 10% or less tonight with a loss, or jump to around 20% with a win and thus be right in the thick of it with us. That compared to about a 2% drop if the Islanders win compared to where we are today.
So cheer for whatever outcome you like, the odds are against us either way.
Ball pits are just toilets filled with brightly colored balls instead of water.
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