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04-09-2013, 10:18 AM
Richer's Ghost
This guy can coach
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Originally Posted by Devils731 View Post
You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.

You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.

If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.

So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.
3 pt games DO hurt the Devils odds.

I don't think you know how to read that site or even what I was saying.

Current Odds for Devils making Playoffs: 20.3%

Odds Devils are IN playoffs based after tonight's game Philly @ Islanders:

Isles Reg win: 19.2%
Isles OT win: 18.6%
Isles SO win: 18.7%
Philly SO win: 20.2%
Philly OT win: 20.1%
Philly Reg win: 22.8% (Only scenario where Devils odds actually go UP after tonight)

Notice that ALL THE 3 PT OUTCOMES are lower than the Regulation outcomes for each winner AND lower the Devils odds of making the playoffs? (18 < 19 for Isles win; 20 < 22 for Philly win). Loser points HURT.

Also note that if Philly wins in either OT or Regulation, they have a HIGHER% odds to make the playoffs than the Devils at that point. That means we got passed because even though they are still 1 point behind us, based on the # of games remaining and who they play, the odds are favoring them (ever so slightly). So even though a Philly win freezes the Isles, it brings Philly neck and neck with us. These are the complexities that a simple cheer for the Flyers stance doesn't show you. Philly is either going to drop to 10% or less tonight with a loss, or jump to around 20% with a win and thus be right in the thick of it with us. That compared to about a 2% drop if the Islanders win compared to where we are today.

So cheer for whatever outcome you like, the odds are against us either way.


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