The Lars Eller Thread - Great or Greatest Dane Edition
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04-10-2013, 01:11 AM
Join Date: Oct 2011
Originally Posted by
Talks to Goalposts
There is a basic unavoidable fact about scoring at the supposed "top six" level.
Its essentially impossible without PP minutes.
The basic cut off for a top sixer these days is a point every two games or .5 PPG. But to get to .5 PPG on just even strength scoring requires a .5 PPG ES, which isn't just top six level, its impact player or riding on the coattails of an impact player level scoring. So to get to that level on your own merits means that you are such a strong offensive talent that you're going to force your way on to a PP.
Occasionally you get a bottom sixer that gets a hot hand and moves into top six territory on just ES work. But they can't sustain that an inevitably fall back to reality the next season.
The biggest reason you so often see the massive gap in top six and bottom six raw scoring totals is less about a huge gap in real offensive talent but that top sixers get their numbers juiced by being on one of their team's 2 PP waves.
The top six bottom six dichotomy that so many make so much about is effectively an artifact of penalties being 2 minutes long, which is effectively 2 PP shifts, which means ice time for two PP units worth of players. If they were one minute then you'd see the big gap in counting numbers between top line players and everyone else.
Which is effectively to say: Eller has already maxed out on the amount of offense any reasonable person could expect from him in his current usage. For them to increase, his usage must change. Expecting more out of him with no usage change is unreasonable.
Exactly, some people were predicting a 50 point season(in an 82 game season) from eller which I thought was ridiculous since he's playing on third line, but he's proving me wrong and putting up what would be a 40+ season and to do that on third line without pp time is amazing.
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