Thread: Pre-Game Talk: 2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk II
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04-10-2013, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Where does the talent drop off in this draft? Obviously, there is a very clear top 3, but in most drafts, there is another tier somewhere between #10 and #15, where there is another marked drop off in skill. After this point, there is often not as much difference between #15 and #35 (for example) as there is between #12 and #15.

What I'm thinking of, is if the Canucks pickup a late 1st or early 2nd round pick as a part of a Luongo trade, they would be in a position, if they choose, to trade up in the draft. But unless the acquired pick is in the top 15 (unlikely it seems at this point), they won't be able to get into the top 10. Depending on how the draft tiers out, there may be no point at all in moving up from say #25 to #15, but a huge difference if you can get to #12.
This thread may be of use: probability of 1st rounder becoming top 6/4. At 1-5 there is a clear advantage, but from 6 to 25 (which for this draft we can extend to 30+ given the alleged depth) the odds fluctuate from roughly 30-40% with no significant advantage, i.e., crapshoot city. Also, unless you get in the top 5, there is historically no advantage to trading up.

Looking at that Button list there is a lot talent in the bottom half. Put Pulock on that Portland roster and if he doesn’t outscore Jones I’m monkey’s uncle. Likewise, is Petan the product of his surroundings or can he rival the Halifax kids in offence? Almost a certainty that someone on that list (or ranked even lower) will be a better pro than Monahan, Shinkaruk and co.

****** of it is, we won’t know for 4-5 years, but that won’t stop every GM claiming on draft day that he couldn’t believe his guy was still available, and we’ll have fun lapping it up.

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