Thread: Pre-Game Talk: 2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk II
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04-10-2013, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Trelane View Post
This thread may be of use: probability of 1st rounder becoming top 6/4. At 1-5 there is a clear advantage, but from 6 to 25 (which for this draft we can extend to 30+ given the alleged depth) the odds fluctuate from roughly 30-40% with no significant advantage, i.e., crapshoot city. Also, unless you get in the top 5, there is historically no advantage to trading up.
Interesting read.

This is probably why GMMG was not that interested in a package for Luongo in which the centerpiece was a draft pick. Trading a sure thing top 5 goalie for a 30% chance at a top 6 forward is not a good plan.

The drop off is greater than I estimated, so by the numbers, there is little reason to trade up unless you can get into the top 5 (probably top 3 in this draft). My subjective observation was that there seems to be a lot of misses in the 10 - 15 range, so there isn't a lot of point in trading up to 14. But this analysis shows that outside of the top 5, the success rate is pretty dismal.

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