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04-13-2013, 11:49 PM
  #37
Hardyvan123
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Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
It's tracked by humans. One guy might see two players bump along the boards and call it a hit, while another won't. Repeat that x10 hits per game x82 games per season and you've got a large discrepancy.
This is the major problem with hockey and stats, prepared to say baseball and football to a lesser degree where plays and their impact can be isolated.

Bob McGowan from the fan in Toronto, whether one likes him or not hit the nail on the head in his hockey arguments book.

To paraphrase him roughly "take away the actual scoring plays in any NHL game and ask people to look at all the other plays in the game and then determine who won the game. This prediction is very random in hockey as scoring chances often go against the flow of the play ect... It's more indicative in baseball and football (all non scoring plays in total) in determining which team probably won the game.

Hockey Prospectus also talks about the high amount of variance or random chance in winning in the NHL today, it's more often than people think or believe or wish it is.

Hockey is always going to lag behind Baseball and even Football in any statistical analysis, and making any conclusions form the data, because of the subjective nature of non scoring plays and their value as well.

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