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04-23-2013, 02:02 PM
  #656
Neilio
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IV XIV XCI View Post
I'm wondering about this Nurse kid.
What interests me is the fact that he's basically tripled his output from this year to last. There must be a reason - playing with Sproul?

What I would be doing as an amateur scout is finding all of the data/stats people in hockey at my disposal and I would tell them to go out and find examples of all the players who took massive leaps in their second year of college play and see how that projects to NHL success.

Is his improvement a fluke or a sign of a future stud. Would suck to pass on this kid and look back in 5-8 years and think we passed on him.

Thoughts/input?
Its a crap shoot. But a lot of guys have a big leap forward in production in their second year in a junior league. They grow physically, and develop their games, the coaches trust them more, they get better ice time due to older players moving on... Any number of reasons.

But generally scouts seem to like to see that improvement in their draft year. It projects well. If he had the same number of points last year as this, they would say that he's plateaued.

It's one of the reasons that MacKinnon was supposed to be a sure fire #1. But he hasn't dramatically improved in his draft year, so he's dropped. Drouin on the other hand has improved so much that he went from a probable 1st rounder to top 3.

That massive leap in production in the draft year seems to be the better omen. Better than busting the door down in your first year and then plateauing, and definitely not as bad as being draft +1 or +2 before putting up serious numbers.

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