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04-24-2013, 03:08 PM
  #749
RGY
(Jagr68NYR94Leetch)
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richter Scale View Post
And the same could be said of last season. Without Hank there is no way that team finishes first in the Eastern Conference. Why does this matter? We do have Hank. And he has arguably stolen far fewer games this year than he did last year... This just screams straw man argument to me.




I'm a stat nerd, so here they come -- This isn't quite the same thing as time in each zone, but it does give a sense of where the games are played (info from here if interested):

2011-2012 (stats at 5on5):

Offensive Zone Faceoffs: 29.4 %
Neutral Zone Faceoffs: 38.5 %
Defensive Zone Faceoffs: 32.1 %


2012-2013 (stats at 5on5):

Offensive Zone Faceoffs: 34.3 %
Neutral Zone Faceoffs: 35.8 %
Defensive Zone Faceoffs: 29.9 %

Seems to indicate that this year they are playing significantly more in the offensive zone, and a decent amount less in the defensive zone...

I don't know where to find defensive/offensive zone time stats - if someone does, please share.




Not necessarily true. Here are some stats for you. I excluded anyone in either season who played less than 10 games in the aggregate stats (so in 2011-12 this excludes guys like Deveaux, Newb, Bell, Scott; in 2012-13 it excludes Ferriero, Newb, Mash, Thomas, Segal, Haley).


Team wide shot blocking and hitting (I know you weren't talking hitting - but I added it in out of curiosity):

2011-12:

1424 total games played / 1335 shots blocked / 2359 hits

Average shots blocked per player per game: 0.94.
Average hits per player per game: 1.66

2012-13:

804 total games played / 723 shots blocked / 1317 hits

Average shots blocked per player per game: 0.90
Average hits per played per game: 1.64

I'm not seeing a big difference there in terms of team shot blocking...


But I got curious and wanted to see the comparison between the new roster players and the major losses from last year.


2011-12 (Rupp, Dubi, Prust, Feds, Anisimov, Mitchell):

434 GP / 230 blocks / 704 hits

Average shots blocked per player per game: 0.53
Average hits per player per game: 1.62


2012-13 (Halpern, Asham, Nash, Pyatt, Powe):

176 GP / 81 blocks / 268 hits

Average shots blocked: 0.46
Average hits: 1.52

That shows a bit more of a difference, but still not huge.


And if you add in the recent acquisitions + Kreider/Miller, you get:

Average shots blocked: 0.46
Average hits: 1.64

So, more hits per game, slightly less blocks among those specific groups of players. But as a team, not much difference. Here are the player specific stats if you’re interested:


2011-12:
Player GP Blocks Hits Blocks/Game Hits/Game
Brandon Dubinsky 77 36 207 0.47 2.69
Brandon Prust 82 51 144 0.62 1.76
Ruslan Fedotenko 73 57 86 0.78 1.18
Artem Anisimov 79 46 75 0.58 0.95
John Mitchell 63 27 89 0.43 1.41
Mike Rupp 60 13 103 0.22 1.72


2012-13:
Player GP Blocks Hits Blocks/Game Hits/Game
Jeff Halpern 30 13 36 0.43 1.2
Arron Asham 26 4 37 0.15 1.42
Rick Nash 42 23 45 0.55 1.07
Taylor Pyatt 46 25 83 0.54 1.8
Darroll Powe 32 16 67 0.5 2.09
Chris Kreider 21 6 31 0.29 1.48
J.T. Miller 26 12 47 0.46 1.81
Ryane Clowe 11 4 30 0.36 2.73
Derick Brassard 11 5 25 0.45 2.28
John Moore 11 11 18 1.0 1.64





This part of your argument doesn't get reflected in stats. That said, I'd agree with it. The new bodies acquired in the offseason to replace our FA losses/Dubi/Anisimov, overall, have been less defensively sound in terms of positioning and the defense corp has been much more prone to dumb mistakes.

The other piece of the puzzle - which also isn't reflected in stats - is that these replacements also haven't been as aggressive and solid on the forecheck as Dubi/Anisimov/Prust/Feds/Mitchell. That said, I think this was addressed somewhat with the Gabby trade and the Clowe acquisition.




I don't think the collapse is THE problem and see it as generally fairly effective, and keeps the other team to the outside with perimeter shots. I'll agree that I'm not a fan of how it leaves the points wide open though and would love to see that tweaked; but in the end don't see that as the primary reason the team has struggled.
I do have class shortly, but I will give a little feedback.

I like your response. I like the give and take from you.

I still think there has been more of a requirement for Henrik to bail out this team this year more than last year's team. Unfortunately they don't tally heroic saves.

Stats are absolutely welcomed for food for thought. I don't think faceoff percentages tell the story at all. And I think in you're following responses you show this without trying to. I will stand by that there is more running around in their own, poor positioning, missed assignments, etc. They do get pinned more than last year. And you basically say it better than I do when you say they are less positionally sound. And expanding on your point about the previous players being more aggressive, that is absolutely true. Those players (dubinsky, fedotenko, prust, etc) read plays better. They had quicker reaction times so they didn't look as loose on the pointmen. They got to them faster and when they couldn't they blocked the shot. That is not the case this year. The stats show a disparity in shot blocking ability. Clowe adds to the grind it out game that torts like but he is still too damn slow and has poor reactionary time in his own end. So does Nash as far as reactions go. The 2011-2012 group were absolutely more aggressive and got in on the forecheck quicker therefore they were beating opposing teams to the dump in's and thus were able to wear teams down over the course of 60 minutes. The dump and chase worked last year for those reasons alone. There was less time in the defensive end and more time below the opposing teams goal line.

I think the collapsing defense is a huge part of the problem. I think when you have players like Nash, Clowe, and Pyatt who do not react quick enough you have to have them tighter on the points. Let that strong defensive 6 you have to do their job down low with the centermen we have. Stepan, Brassard, and Boyle have all shown efficient games down low imo when it comes to the defensive part of the game. And since Powe was moved to center, him too.

The strategy needs to change.

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