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04-27-2013, 09:13 AM
  #55
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schuckers View Post
Indeed one can think of this as like Corsi in that it puts emphasis on shots and shot differential. We do that because we're tying events to the probability they lead to a goal. But unlike Corsi we give some weight to shots by location (x,y) and type of shot according to their probability of being a goal. (Before I get hammered on RTSS and shots, we adjust shot location by rink and then we break the O zone in to ~50 grids to get our probabilities of a goal.)

As Scott Cullen has noted we don't give credit for scoring a goal and that over long periods that seems to matter. We're thinking about ways to account for this that give credit for scoring but also recognize short term fluctuation in scoring rates.
Adding data on the puck movement before the goal was scored may help. Getting goalies moving side to side with lateral puck movement is an important part of shot quality that isn't incorporated by shot location data.

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