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04-28-2013, 11:33 PM
  #736
Freudian
luck paper scissors
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shadow1 View Post
According to BehindTheNet.ca, Colorado's 5v5 SV% with Erik Johnson on the ice was 0.893, second worst amongst Avalanche defensemen (Stefan Elliott). The story was similar last year, as the team's 0.912 SV% with EJ on the ice was lowest amongst Avalanche defensemen.

To me, that stat seems more relevant than shots for/against with Johnson in/out of the line-up. Especially considering the Avalanche's record this year with EJ in the line-up was 9-19-3 vs. 7-6-4 when he was scratched.
On ice save percentage (both for and against) is all over the place from year to year. That should tell you all you need to know about it's usefulness. It's more or less a luck stat. Pretty much all it's used for is PDO, which is basically a way to measure how lucky or unlucky a player is.

That the teams record is better when massively outshot than when outshooting the opposition is more a reflection on how goaltending has been for us. Avs have a significantly better record without EJ, Landeskog and O'Reilly than with those three. Mostly due to Varlamov being hot early on and terrible later on.

Something like 3000 shots is more likely to be statistically significant as a representation of the play in games than the two things you prefer, both being massively affected by randomness.

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