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04-29-2013, 03:26 PM
  #45
Finlandia WOAT
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
I have a serious question (forgive me for derailing the thread). I know it's become a bit of a meme around here, but does anyone actually think that Tlusty even has a shot at 40 goals next season?

I for one am pleased with his season and I don't think a 25-25-50 season from him next year is an unreasonable expectation, but I'm wondering if anyone here has actually said that they expect 40.

Not to take away from the joke, I'm just wondering who it was...
What I reasonably expect: 25g-30 assists.
What I think he can get in a best year: 30g-35 assists.

Tlusty has an excellent shot and an above average release, and knows when to use it, when to pass and when to cycle (unlike some people, who love to aim for the shins, cough cough Skinner cough cough), so I think he has a chance to not experience a significant drop off from his 16% shooting percentage (calculated by removing his 4 empty net goals).

On the other hand, he scored 19 of his 23 goals in 9 games (or 80% production in 18% of the season). That's against playoff teams like the Rangers, Devils (when they were good in the first half), Bruins, Islanders and the Capitals, so he didn't just beat up on a weak ass division. He finished the year on an 8 point scoring streak, so I think it's fair to say that he is a streaky scorer.

It's hard to predict how a streaky scorer like Tlusty will perform from year to year.

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