12/13 Draft Thread: Currently picking 21st
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04-30-2013, 06:32 PM
The Winter Soldier
Join Date: Apr 2011
Originally Posted by
Shows just how hard a job it is for scouts, and why tons of teams pass on future all-stars in favour of future busts.
Scouts are comparing players of different positions, playing with different linemates, playing on different teams with different offensive vs defensive tendencies that can over-exaggerate/mask their good qualities and their bad qualities, some players differ in age by as much as 11-12 months, and even playing in different leagues, some against men, some not, etc.
Gotta include context when your comparing players, including OHL experience. If we didn't use context, then the draft would pretty much come down to looking at point totals and ignoring everything else.
You understand context, most do, you can't make black and white judgments on players, by blindly comparing stats. There are many more factors, for instance you can't measure desire and heart, those don't show up on a stats sheet.
I think most scouts want to pick the next star, or someone that is going to be the best player at 22, or 23. Not necessarily at 18 or for next season. Comparing stats when 2 players are at different points of their development is silly, this is exactly why I see a lot of upside in a player like Justin Bailey.
It takes a real good understanding and at times intuition to project players, physical tools, character and also understanding where they came from. Bailey was basically a high school player to the OHL, he's not going to tear up the OHL his first exposure to it, but he will more than likely next year improve his points totals as he grows and gains experience. Same for Hartman, it was his first season in the OHL. Look at Rychel his first season in the OHL he scored 13 points, though he was a younger player, no one barring extraordinary talents tear up the OHL at first exposure.
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