Thread: Prospect Info: 2012-2013 Blues Prospects
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05-02-2013, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
The Blues, like most teams, have plenty of strong goalie prospects. There's a glut of goalies around the world. Think about it for a second. There are 60 goalies in the NHL. Set them aside.

Now, add up all the starting goalies for quality leagues/development programs around the world. There are at least 250. There are 60-70 college starters. There are ~75 starters in junior. There are 20 something KHL starters, same in Finland and Sweden. Then there are other Euro leagues. Then there's the entire AHL. Easily 250 starting jobs around the world.

Now, obviously not every one of these goalies is a viable NHL prospect, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the positions are legitimate spots for goalies to develop and compete with the 60 guys in the NHL. A guy can come through a Swiss league, earn being drafted or signed as a free agent. It's all up to the individual goalie to excel. A goalie who takes the reins and runs with it can get to the NHL, it's a meritocracy. When a franchise has three guys around the world as possible strong goalie prospects it's just not a surprise anymore, it's the norm.

And this is why goalies have so little trade value. There's no leverage to trade someone with a NHL starter's contract unless he's a legitimate All-Star caliber guy, because the team you want to trade that guy to (often but not always to save yourself salary off of the likely retarded contract your GM gave him) can just go, no, we'll try our luck with our super cheap up and comer. After all, the best of your up and comers is probably just as physically able as the NHL guys but only needs experience and confidence. Those are biggies, which is why you do still see trades involving NHL goalies. But it's why teams who want to get a lot for their guy usually come away disappointed. Goalies are the hardest to predict, are relatively useless to draft at 18 since they typically don't make impacts til 7+ years later, and there are always new guys in some development or pro league making a case for themselves.

We have no idea what Allen, Binnington or Lundstrom are going to be. They've each shown promise and had accomplishments at lower levels but that's no predictor of NHL confidence/execution. Allen got a little confidence in the NHL this year but it was amusing to see people speak so confidently about him as if he were the established starter already and just cast anyone aside who've had a small handful of terrible games for this club yet had performed at historically great NHL levels the rest of the time.
Lots of good points here P9. I think the biggest issue is how hard it is to judge them until they are at least 25 years old. Look how unimpressive Quick was just 3 years ago.

I think the Blues have a great chance with Allen but only time will tell

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