Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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05-03-2013, 09:39 AM
Join Date: Jan 2012
Originally Posted by
I think a really key factor in looking at the first round is how long a team waits for the first top6/top4 season. It is a huge factor in drafting and why the top 3-5 picks hold such value because you might get a player that contributes within a season or two. The future value of an asset is much lower then the current value. The reason the Devils chose to pick at 29th overall instead of forfeiting their pick.
I was thinking of why picks 10-15 perform so poorly. Maybe it is because that is where several GMs (enough for it to be statistically relevant in such a small sample size) have gone off the board and picked guys that were not supposed to be picked until later on in the 1st round or early second. They want a certain player, all the true blue chippers are gone and they can justify going outside the consensus draft ratings. How often do we see a GM at 13 or 14 going for a guy rated 28th or 32nd in the draft? It happens several times a draft and usually those picks are flops. Once you go deeper into the first round, GMs still are picking guys they want... but if you pick a guy rated 31st at 22nd overall no one blinks.
This thinking would basically validate your research in saying after you get through the first 10 picks or so... the draft is a crapsho
ot. GMs even know that... and once they get through a certain number of blue chip consensus to everyone picks... then it is just who you like from the next group of a dozen or two dozen players.
I also wonder if the success rate of later 1st round picks in your analysis being so similar to that of earlier picks is due to the better teams picking the players. Better teams often have better minor league systems, will not rush players. Like Detroit for example. They might get a pick at 27th, let the guy finish junior and have him in the minors for 2 or 3 or 4 years. The same player drafted by Columbus might have been in the NHL at 20 and struggled and never developed to the same potential he would have had. So later first round picks could look better simply because of who drafted them.
This is one thing that i got from this that i really need to hammer home,
top ten should not be considered a "block". the variance from 6th overall to 10th overall is dramatic. People pikc "top ten" because..you know...that's a thing, but in reality your tiers should be top 6, as 7-15 are essentially equal.
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