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05-06-2013, 08:35 PM
Oh Hai Guise
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Originally Posted by Grind Jam Grind View Post
No. Every coin flip is 50-50. What happened last time has no effect on the next trial. Gambler's fallacy.
Yes, I know.

Each coin flip is 50-50. Thats why going forward, we have two games. The result is in the past, we're down 2-0. Going forward there is a 50% chance we lose each game - meaning, there is a 25% chance we lose this game and the next.

The probabilities of the previous results are now 1.

I essentially explained the opposite of the gamblers fallacy and you interpreted it as the gambler fallacy.
I'm assuming you just misinterpreted what I wrote.

At Game 1:
There was a 6.25% chance of losing 4 games. .5^4
At Game 2
There was a 12.5% chance of losing the next 3 games. 1^1*(.5)^3
Now its Game 3:
Two events are now (1)s, meaning that the probability as of this point is (1*1*.5*.5)

If I had said the chances were still 6.25%, that would be the gambler's fallacy.

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