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05-07-2013, 06:07 PM
Bear of Bad News
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Originally Posted by SHO NUFF View Post
In Ryder's pythagorean formula for hockey, he's using an exponent of 1.86. As this paper was written in 2004, he's accounting for ties. How would you adjust this exponent now that ties are no longer a factor?
I haven't thought about it too much (and I actually just use 2 as my exponent in my work). For what I do (support-neutral goalie stats), I decided that it's preferable to use the standard formula (which assumes that all games are two-point games), because it puts Henrik Lundqvist on an even playing field with Patrick Roy on an even playing field with Jacques Plante.

The most straightforward way that I could think of would be to:
  • Remove OT goals (and shootout effects) from the base totals.
  • Use those goals and goals against to generate standings assuming no three-point games.
  • To estimate the allocation of "third points" (from OT and SO) fit a regression model against OT/SO goals.
  • Put it all back together.

Could be an interesting project for someone with a few hours to kill and an Excel spreadsheet.

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