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05-11-2013, 01:19 AM
The Perfect Human*
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,943
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
A lot of people come up with the "soft goal syndrome" theory for Dubby... and that he deflates the team with his error prone plays.

Well I watched Quick do the same thing several times and people were basically anointing him as the chosen one who could do no wrong last season.

Goal is a tough position and every error sticks out like a midget in a slam dunk contest because it leads to an instant tally against on the scoreboard. Instant goat or instant hero.

A goalie can bail out dmen 10 times in a game (which Dubnyk HAS done) and then let one "softie" in and they are considered to "deflate" the team.

He obviously faces a pile of rubber and stops his fair share and then some.

Maybe he does face a slightly lower percentage of quality shots... being peppered from everywhere because of the porous team defense on the Oilers. Maybe that does lead to teams taking shots from outside and all angles and thus driving up his save pct because of a slightly higher number of lower quality shots to high quality shots ratio.

That's a theory that may have some validity but saying that... he's still stopping pucks and facing a lot of rubber. until he get down close to that 90% range, or even 91%... I am not seeing him as a major part of this team failing. It's much more obvious that team defense (and offense) is inferior.
Completely agree. This deflation theory is completely baseless. Countless times young teams have been able to win playoff series and championships riding other goalies letting in soft goals.

CHI won in 2010 with Niemi at 0.910 (0.912 in RS in 39GP)
PIT won in 2009 with Fleury at 0.908 (0.912 in RS in 61GP)

Does elite-level goaltending win championships for just "good" teams? Yes. That's when you have a top-3 goaltender on your team. Quick and Thomas come to mind as goaltenders that have won that way (0.940+). This is an impossible asset to acquire any way but pure luck. No team is trading a goalie like this.

Most teams win with a combination of good 0.920+ goaltending and a great team (DET, ANA, CAR). Hey! That's Dubnyk's save percentage!

In CHI/PIT's case, they took average-at-best goaltending and won with an elite-level roster of skaters.

Osgood had a penchant for letting in soft goals in DET. Cam Ward has done it his whole career. Crawford also does the same. Niemi minimally but it still happens.

Absolutely overrated thing this "deflation" theory.

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