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05-11-2013, 02:13 PM
Join Date: Jul 2010
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
Ummm...the Pens had an ES ratio of 235/194 NOT 253/206. SH goals are NOT ES goals whether you get a +/- for them or not.
And Detroit's ratio was 211/128 NOT 228/137
You're right I forgot the SH stuff but the point pretty much remains the same.

People are referring to Mario as being DOMINANT at ES when it isn't actually true, not in real raw stats (ESGF/ESGA) or even adjusted for the weaker team mates of Mario.

Second, for those ES ratio's of Fedorov's and Lemieux's to be correct, it means that Mario would have had to have been on the ice for an equal number of SH against as he was part of producing, same with Fedorov.
I find it extremely unlikely that BOTH player just happened to be on for the exact number of SH goals against as they were on for SH goals for that season.
For both Mario and feds ESGF/ESGA I removed both their PP and SH GF and GA so it's a moot point.

Next, Fedorov's +/- on THAT team is not as impressive as it seems. That defensive Stalwart Slava Kozlov is a mere +16 behind Fedorov at +33.
And is it just a coincidence that Konsy, Larionov, Fedorov, Kozlov and Fetisov were the 5 highest +'s on the team?
The "Russian Five" ring a bell? A line, sorry, a Unit that played an extreme puck possession game.
Not as impressive as it seems?

Give me a break, he is playing at a Selke pace against the other teams top players and he is obviously the strongest part of that Russian 5 group you are referring too.

We can go back to Feds rookie season and beyond where Feds was always one of the leaders for forwards in plus minus on his Detroit teams. It further supports that Feds wasn't riding anyone coattails in his plus/minus stats on those Wings teams.

For reference Overpass here has a study on adjusted plus minus statistics were Mario is 22 and Feds is 32 since 1967.

No, sorry, Fedorov was a great two-way player but his value is being exaggerated by the team he played on. A perfect Storm if you will. (Oh you have no freakin idea how good that felt to use that term against you)
exactly how is Feds value being over eggarated by playing on Detroit?

No doubt you are feeling pretty good about the perfect storm comment but it really doesn't apply here does it?

Where teams splitting up their top lines, thus making Feds defensive responsibilities easier (and made to look better than they really where?)

Was Detroit playing Feds late in games on stacked lines to pump up his offensive stats?

Where exactly is this perfect storm that you are referring to?

Hmmm...well lets see...Mario produced as many ES points than the average first line player even had total points and produced almost triple the PP points as the average first liner. In just 70 games no less.
Yeeeaaahhhh I would say 2.5 times the value of an average first line player is about right.

And again, Mario's special teams production is a monstrous 88 to Fedorov's 42, more than double and also AGAIN, that's in just 70 games!

Fedorov was a strong ES player but he was NOT worth double the value of Mario at ES.
Mario WAS worth double and more than that of Fedorov on special teams.

'96 Mario>>'96 Fedorov
Once again you are only looking at actual ES scoring and not everything that happened while Mario was on the ice.

Look guys are more responsible for scoring points than they are for stopping the opposition in scoring but to what degree it's uncertain.

What we do know is that Mario was on the ice for exactly 10 more ESGF than ESGA which isn't dominant period even if he on the ice for 300 goals he would be on the ice for 290 goals against.

Feds doesn't need to score 77 ES strength points to have the same value as Mario, he is after all the focal point of the defense from the center position and playing at a Selke winning rate at that point.

Heck if winning hockey was only about scoring points Mario, Jagr and Francis and company would ahve more than 2 SC right?

But it's not just about scoring goals, it's also about preventing them and other things as well.

In your world Denis Maruk is a way better player than Rick Middleton was in 81 and 82 combined right?

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