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05-11-2013, 02:16 PM
  #717
SA16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
Hey copycat! Pretty much said the same thing, except I used an arbitrary number. For what it's worth, I don't think it's a great way of looking at this. If the Rangers have a 20% PP for the season, I don't think that means that every PP they have they have a 20% chance of scoring on. If I go out 6 nights a week and end up getting a woman's phone numbers 3 times on average. Does that mean that I have a 50% chance of getting a woman's phone's number on any given night? I'm not sure that's how it works. That said, for lack of a better method I did the same thing as you.

It's look at in the big picture. Failing on 10 consecutive PPs is less likely than failing on 9 consecutive PPs. Failing on 10 consecutive PPs is improbable. However, if you already beat the odds and failed on 9 consecutive PP, then the chances that you fail on the 10th is exactly the same as any other individual PP.
Well they don't have, say 20% as you said, on every individual powerplay due to factors like

1. Opposing team PK
2. Players on ice (maybe the top line was on the shift just before the penalty so we have to start with lesser guys)
3. Etc..

But longterm if you look back on the season and look at a random sample of games that's the trend you will see.

Against the Caps we should have a much better PP than usual given how awful their PK is. I mean it's been horrible but it's really been no worse than in the regular season. It's 2/21 which is obviously a real small sample but just add one more goal (say Boyles that was just as it ended) and now its 3/21 and 15% just about or above our regular season. Say we scored 2 more and its 4/21 and now its like 19%. Things change too much when the denominator is small.

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