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05-15-2013, 06:41 AM
  #908
Fourier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I hate to say it, but I'm really not expecting a whole lot from this pick. I don't have faith in our brain trust that they know what they're doing outside of an obvious gimme no.1 overall pick.

The only pick that's really turned up roses for them outside of the no.1 selections has been the Eberle pick and that was probably more of a fluke than anything, maybe the hockey gods giving us a break for the Pronger trade.

I'm skeptical of Mac T/Lowe's "bold move" talk in general, this is the same group that let Glencross walk, dealt away Torres for Brule, and then Pitkanen on an RFA contract for Erik Cole, a pending UFA.

They're probably going to end up doing something stupid in the summer now that they're feeling heat even from the usually coddling Edmonton media.

Knowing the track record here they will likely trade the pick for a "veteran d-man" who will be gone from the organization in 1-2 years or make the pick based on odd criteria (ie: size or need) and watch the pick disappoint.
MacGregor has been in charge since Sept 2007. Since then the drafting has actually been quite good if you look at actual expectations for players turning out to be NHL'ers.

For me I'd say that you judege a first round pick by the relative odds that they are impact players. Outside of the top 5 or so picks odds that a player is top 6 as a forward or top 4 dman drop off quite rapidly.

Once you hit round 2 and beyond the issue is do you get a guy who actually plays in the NHL. In round 2 your odds are somewhere between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 that the guy you pick breaks the 200 game barrier. The odds of a second line forward or top 4 defenseman drop to about 10%.

From the third round onward anything is basically a bonus.

So really a scout lives or dies by their first round picks.

Roughly speaking, you should expect 2 NHL players picked in the 2nd round onwards every three years or so. Anything better than that is actually beating the odds.

2008
Eberle at 22 ia an absolute home run. What evidence is there that this was a fluke? Hartikainen as a 6th rounder was also an excellent pick. He has a very good chance to break the 200 game barrier.

2009
Right now Paajarvi is pretty much in the middle of what you might expect out of a 10th pick. Lander looks like a legit NHL'er. Toni Rajala may not play in the NHL because of his size but he was an excellent pick realtive to his peers.

2010
Marincin is definitely ahead of where you would expect for a 2nd rounder. He has an excellent chance of being a top 4 dman but is certainly in psosition to become na NHl regualr.
I still think Pitlick becomes an NHL'er but in a bottom 6 roll.

2011
Kelfbom is looking like another home run. Musil is still on track to play in the NHl though it is too early. Ewanyk also has a very good shot at being an NHL'er. It;s too early to tell but Rieder could be a very good NHL'er.

2012
It's pretty early but so far the picks in this draft look fine. Moroz was obviously a hot button pick but we will see. Guys like Khaira and Zharkov are certainly holding their own.

So as of now in 5 drafts they have had 3 first rounders outside of the first overalls. Two look to be home runs and one is covering his bet. Add in Hall, Nuge and Yakupov and you really don't need to do much more to keep your job.

Form the later rounds they have Marincin and Lander who look to be very close to sure things. They also have Hartikainen sitting on the fence.

It is too early to say for sure with the rest of their picks but they have several players who look like they can be players.

What more do you actually want from these guys?

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