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05-15-2013, 03:03 PM
I am the Liquor
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
It's easy to pick out an ROR and say that is good scouting.

No one is disputing the fact that there will be very good players picked later than the first round. But it would seem that the big successes are mostly random once you move past the first.

In 2005 Colorado had 4 2nd round picks. They picked Paul Stastny at 44 after picking the legendary Ryan Stoa at 34 (Vlasic was the next pick at 35). They then picked Tom Fritsche at 47 and Chris Durand. Brilliant drafting or lucky pick?

Since 1995 Colorado has had 28 second round picks. They hit two home runs in Statstny and ROR. They also had Boychuck in 2002 but they gave up on him before he made the NHL with Boston at age 25. Those are the only three significant NHL'er is the 28 picks. About one in ten.

If you look at draft history about 1 in 3 to one in 4 early second rounders will play 200 games in the NHL. (THat is typically the standard that most use in assessing drafted players). Fewer become long term regulars. So out of 6 picks you might expect 2 to play 200 NHL games.

Lander has already played 62 NHL games and he just turned 22. Marincicn would seem like a very good bet to make that standard as well. So while it is too early to say for sure it looks a lot like the second rounder will cover the bet.

You also seem to want to ignore Eberle and Klefbom, and even to a degree Paajarvi. As I said the most important picks are the first rounders. Oiler fans should know that better than anyone seeing the damage that the previous group did to the franchise by squandering there 1st round picks for so many years.
The only full time sure fire nhler you have identified is Eberle. A first round pick. The others are a bunch of maybes. Klefbom is another first round pick. Still a maybe. Fact of the matter is we dont have a ROR in the organization unless you want to go back as far as Horcoff.

Paul Stastny and ROR > anything weve been able to come up with. Our draft record has been disgustingly bad. If we have to use Lander as a indicator of our non-first round success then we are well and truly ****ed.

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