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2013 Draft Thread | "Falling Flat for Horvat"
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05-15-2013, 03:41 PM
I am the Liquor
Join Date: Oct 2008
Originally Posted by
Well obviously jordan eberle is a huge success where he was drafted but we will ignore him. As far as picks stu has had rajala, reider (traded i know but he doesn't get a say in that), gernat, simpson and khaira are all currently performing above expectations imo and lander, marincin, pelss, roy, and davidson are about where you should expect them. If any of these players were regulars in the NHL at this point it would be a draft steal and considered an amazing pick but about half of his picks are trending in the right direction (not including first rounders which all are showing positive arrows currently). Drafting takes time and if in another 5 years even half of these guys become nhl regulars he is drafting well.
From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.
if you use average success (1/4 for second rounders and 12% for third and beyond) if lander and marincin become regulars and just 3 of the other 27 picks beyond the 2nd he is at average rate of success. If you include first rounders currently he is 5/6 (klefbom only one not a regular yet and looks like he could be as early as next year) he is already above average as the average success rate of first picks is 60%. The next 5 years will really start to tell us how well he drafts but being upset he can't find the one of the few amazing picks past the first round every year seems foolish.
EDIT: I also want to point out people saying he is an amaziing drafter is just as foolish as we just don't have enough information at this point. If one or two players make massive jumps and play in the NHL or fall off map and never have careers his results will swing rapidly. Drafting is a low success gamble and even just one success where it is unexpected can make a great draft.
My statement of "poor drafting" extends well beyond the Macgregor years. It is too early to be pinning success or failure on him yet, but the early returns are not looking too good imo.
Compare us with Montreal for example. Look a the last fifteen years or so. That is a pretty big contrast.
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