Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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05-17-2013, 02:53 PM
Join Date: Jan 2012
Originally Posted by
Another non-binary value you could use is average salary. This is essentially what GMs and agents conclude is the "worth" of a player. This would give a consistent measure (you won't be comparing apples to oranges, points by forwards, minutes by defencemen, etc). I'm not going to argue that every player in the study is worth exactly what he's making, but hopefully this will be averaged out over the entire sample.
Basically graph the average salary of every player picked first overall, second overall, etc.
I'd love to see a study done like this for all rounds of the draft. I think then you could say "a first overall pick is worth on average a 6 million dollar player. A tenth overall pick is worth on average a 2 million dollar player. I'll trade you the 9th, 10th, and 11th, overall picks for your first overall"
This is a very neat idea. of course it would all have to be adjusted for the salary cap at the time each contract was signed, but otherwise it hink this (and ice time) could work decently.
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