Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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05-19-2013, 04:18 AM
Join Date: May 2013
Originally Posted by
Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon
Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?
The thing is: Every hockey game is influenced by chance so much, that outplaying your opponent may not be enough on any given night. BUT if you continue to outshoot your opponent, you will end up winning more games than you lose. That's why FenClose after 30 games is a better indicator of a team's strength than their actual record. Just look at Minnesota in 11-12. After 35 games they were very close to the top of the NHL standings (if not at the top), but they won a lot of those games while being outshot. In the end they didn't even make the playoffs, because their good luck was bound to run out.
If you compare the end of year standings with the FenClose or FenTied standings, they're pretty similar, but it does take some time before the effects of luck even out.
To come back to your question: Over the course of a season the Fenwick and Corsi data "sync up" with the scoring chances and the scoring chances "sync up" with goals. So if New Jersey continues to outshoot their opponents, they will start winning games.
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