: Post-Game Talk:
Wings humiliate the Hawks 4-1
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05-20-2013, 02:52 PM
Join Date: Aug 2008
Originally Posted by
Yeah that is coach-speak but in the end is meaningless. All of the games are equally as important, duh.
A team with home-court advantage in game 1 has a 53.2% of winning the entire series. A win in game 1 for the home team drives this percentage up by nearly 13% and thus a game 1 win for the home team means they have a pretty good shot (66%). A win for the away team interestingly enough drives their winning percentage up to the same 66% but from an initial 46.8% in game 1. If these numbers are averaged, a game 1 win leads to approximately a 15% increase in winning the series.
This is where it begins to get complicated. Simply note that a 2-0 series lead means the team will have an 84% chance of winning the series if at home, and a 79% chance of winning the series if away. Thus, in a way, game 2 can be extremely crucial.
Should the series be deadlocked at 1 a piece, contrary to popular opinion, game 3 actually isnít as important relative to other scenarios. A game 3 win at home actually only increases the chances of winning a series by 15%, exactly the same percentage as a game 1 win.
This one is very dependent on scenario. If the series is at 3-0, the winning team would evidently win the series with a victory, but prior to the game their chances of winning the series would already have been at 94.2%. On the other hand, the team losing in a 3-0 series with a win would only increase their odds by 8%. Interestingly enough, if a team were to be down 2-1, a win away from home would swing their odds from 30.7% to 55%. A very significant 24.3% increase. They would have a 55% chance to win even with the series tied.
Note to playoff teams: Win game 5. In a 2-2 series tie, an away team winning game 5 leads to an enormous 28.8% increase to win the series. A home team winning game 5 has a relatively smaller increase at 19.9, but a loss would destroy their odds as they would drop from 44.8% to 16%.
If you are the home team in a 3-2 deficit, you are not in as bad of a shape as you might have thought. That home team still has a 36% shot at winning the series, whereas an away team in the same situation would have only a 16% chance.
There can be only one scenario in game 7, and that is a 3-3 series tie. In this case, the home team has a 60% shot at winning the series, whereas the away team has 40%. Clearly, home-court advantage does exist.
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